Terrorists Won Big
in Spain
Who's Next?
By John D. Turner
The Spanish in their
elections swept out the old conservative government of Prime
Minister Jose Maria Aznar, one of President Bush’s staunchest
supporters of regime change in Iraq. The incumbent, Jose Luis
Rodriguez Zapatero, leader of the left-leaning Spanish Socialist
Workers Party has stated that “the military intervention [in Iraq]
was a political error for the international order” and pledged that
Spanish troops will be pulled out of Iraq by 30 June.
The election followed in the
wake of the worst terrorist attack ever on Spanish soil; 200 were
killed with another 1500 injured. Although initial suspicion was
that the Basque separatist group ETA was behind the attack, new
evidence (and repeated ETA denials of culpability) points to an al-Qaida
connection.
Prior to the attack, the
conservatives, who lost 43 to 38 with 77% of eligible voters voting,
enjoyed a 5 point lead. The reason for the turn-around? Public
perception that the attack was a direct result of Spanish
involvement in Iraq, which the public does not support.
This being the case, what
does the future portend in terms of al-Qaida and the global war on
terror?
Spain is not the only
country where involvement in Iraq is unpopular at home. Most of the
nations that have pledged support have a large number of citizens
who were against involvement in the first place and favor
withdrawal. Such sentiment is not unknown right here in the United
States.
The fact is that al-Qaida
won this one. Spain, under the government of Prime Minister Aznar,
was a major supporter of the GWOT and US action in Iraq. While the
incumbent, Mr. Zapatero says his most immediate priority will be to
fight terrorism, which does not include supporting the US action in
Iraq, which, like many others, he sees as a totally separate issue
of aggression by the United States. The result, a pull-out of
Spanish forces in Iraq, is a victory for al-Qaida. It remains to be
seen if others will follow suit.
The most logical follow-up
to this success would be for al-Qaida to repeat their attack in
Spain, targeting other countries where there is a large amount of
popular sentiment against their country’s support for Mr. Bush’s
Iraq policy. Particularly susceptible would be countries that will
be having elections soon or those like Great Britain with
parliamentary systems where a vote of no confidence can be taken at
any time without waiting for the regular election cycle.
Great Britain would make a
particularly good target in fact. Prime Minister Tony Blair is a
staunch supporter of Mr. Bush. There are a large number (relatively
speaking) of British troops in Iraq, and there is a large number of
people in the United Kingdom who are very much against their
presence there. A successful attack against Britain, with large
numbers of casualties as in Spain, could cause the fall of Mr.
Blair’s government, and a reversal of British policy concerning
Iraq. This would be a serious blow to the Bush administration,
piling fuel on the fire of those adamantly opposed to Bush’s
intervention in Iraq. And we are in an election year as well…
Would al-Qaida strike here
again, hoping for a reaction similar to that achieved in Spain? And
if they did, what would the reaction be?
They might. Certainly there
is no guarantee we could stop them. We might foil an attempt or two,
but if they try multiple targets it is unlikely we would get them
all. It’s a big country, and we can’t guard everything. We don’t
even try.
All one has to do is look at
the number of illegal aliens that slip across our southern border
with Mexico each year to understand that. And contrary to popular
belief, all of them are not Hispanic. A growing number (around
20-30%) are from the Middle East.
If a large scale attack, say
like the one perpetrated in Spain, were to occur here in the US,
what would be the reaction? Would we rise up in anger like we did
after 911? Or would we react like they did in Spain, and blame it on
the policies of Mr. Bush in Iraq?
I suspect the latter. I
think that Mr. Kerry would find it irresistible to blame such an
attack on Mr. Bush’s “failure” to prosecute the war on terror by
getting sidetracked with his “persona vendetta” against Saddam
Hussein (He did try to “kill his daddy”, after all). I can imagine
him blaming all the deaths on Mr. Bush personally, and vowing to
bring the troops home if elected.
However, one thing is
certain. The reaction of the voters in Spain has just guaranteed
that the world has become a more dangerous place.
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