Running Out of Oil?
The Recurring Hysteria
By Daniel Muniz

Every few years there is always a media sensation about how the planet will run out of oil in the very near future. The dire predictions hit the airwaves with reports about the pending devastation to our modern civilization. However, it really doesn’t take very long for the sensation to die off in the press because more vast oil reserves are discovered while improved technology extracts more oil from existing fields.

However, in the lapse of several years another media sensation explodes and the cycle repeats itself.

Although the ominous predictions are always proven false when they are presented to the public the reason that this frenzy is recycled in the press is because the media loves extremes. Incidentally, popular culture also absorbs the hysteria like a sponge since society loves to be titillated and tantalized with these extremes regardless of the lack of facts and the inaccuracy of the reporting. In all truthfulness, factual data is boring and uneventful while the imminent doom of civilization as we know it captures the public’s imagination.
 

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And we are already seeing another such prediction taking place with soaring gasoline prices.

What fuels this paranoia is the “peak oil” theory that was formulated by the late Marion King Hubbert. Hubburt was a geologist who accurately predicted that the continental United States would reach its peak production during the 1970’s. Consequently, this country began to see an ever growing dependence on foreign oil from that time on.

Since Hubburt’s theory appeared to accurately predict the outcome with the United States, it was subsequently applied the world’s supply of oil.

The peak oil theory postulates that once the peak is reached production would rapidly decline in which the existing reserves would be quickly depleted and that there wouldn’t be enough new fields to replenish what was lost. And when this theory is applied to the world’s oil supply, the planet would experience the dire consequences of civil unrest because there would only be so much oil left to satisfy the growing global appetite for fossil fuels.

However, the problem with applying a “global” peak oil theory is that the theorists never take into consideration the many poorly understood variables which oftentimes involve purely political factors that have absolutely nothing to do with geology. Additionally, the planet as a whole is enormously bigger than what these theorists take into account especially when it comes to exploration. As a result, they always end up with egg on their face once new reserves are discovered particularly when new fields are not all that far away from existing ones.

For instance, Mexico as an oil producer would soon deplete its current reserves in the near future and the country would have to begin to import oil. However, a gigantic field was recently discovered off their Gulf Coast which promises to be larger than what the country had been drilling before.

In the United States, Congress recently passed legislation to allow 8.3 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico to be open for the drilling of oil and natural gas. That particular area known as Lease Sale 181 contains an estimated 5.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas as well as 1.26 billion barrels of crude oil. In order to tap into those reserves, Congress had to end a 25 year ban in those waters.

Critics of the “global” peak oil theory contend that there is still plenty of untapped oil yet to be discovered. And even when the peak has been reached, production would not rapidly decline but plateau for a significant amount of time. The industry has been extremely successful in using new technology on older existing reserves so that it is now possible to extract just as much oil from these wells as what we are currently extracting from exploration. These better processes have actually kept production far steadier and more stable instead of making a precipitous decline.

Also, there are already plenty of reserves that political forces and sharpened environmental concerns have forbidden access to. For example, there are enormous oil reserves right off of our West and East Coasts but environmental activism prevents us from extracting the black gold. Huge reserves also exist in the vast but desolate state of Alaska but political forces again greatly limit access.

However, the political culture in Texas and Louisiana are totally different therefore quite a bit of drilling and exploration has been going on for decades. Both states have long histories involving energy production so extracting oil is not much of a political dilemma as it is for California.

The “global” peak theory is nothing more than a media sensation.

Yes, it provides doom and gloom story to a hungry press. The media loves anything that depicts the end of civilization because such tabloid stories can generate enormous publicity.

In addition, the press also engages in the disingenuous practice known as the rowback. A rowback is when the media presents an event as factual but when new evidence arises that debunks it, the press treats the original story as if it never happened. Such dishonesty allows the media never to admit that it was wrong. Additionally, it also allows bogus stories like the world running out of oil to be constantly recycled without ever encumbering the press with the responsibility of acknowledging that they already cried wolf before.

The global peak theory simply causes confusion especially when an irresponsible sensationalistic press is involved. And it diverts attention from the real problems that confronts the world.

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