Rick Perry Versus the World
A Nasty Primary Challenge?
by Daniel Muniz
Republicans were elated when the GOP overran
the Democratic stronghold of Texas. Not only has Texas produced
George W. Bush as president, the GOP firmly established itself as
the dominant party in the Lone Star State for years to come.
However, quite a few eye brows were raised when
incumbent Texas senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson generated speculation
that she no longer wished to serve in Washington, but rather have
the opportunity to run for governor. Incumbent governor Rick Perry
has no intention of stepping down and will definitely run for
re-election thus ensuring a costly and divisive intra-party fight
for the Texas governor's mansion.
Observing this drama from the sidelines is
Evan from the web site, Rick Perry Versus the World. Below is an
interview with Evan.
Web site: Rick Perry Versus the World
As an observer and commentator of the potential race between the
incumbent Governor Rick Perry and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson
of Texas, there are certain Republicans that feel outraged of a
possible primary challenge. For instance, many party members see
such a challenge as a waste of party resources and feel that if
this primary race does take place, it is nothing more than
cannibalism that could eventually divide and weaken the party.
Q. Do you think that such a costly
primary race could ultimately weaken the party?
A. In the short-term, maybe. In the
long-term, no.
It's possible that the primary could be so
nasty and divisive that the nominee would limp wounded into the
general (election) and be beaten by a Democrat. It's not likely
though. To capitalize on such a situation, the Democrats would
need a credible candidate. At this point, it's tough to see who
that would be.
But in the long-term, the Texas GOP has a
very healthy future. Given demographic trends and party ID,
Texas Republicans stand poised to dominate over the next two
decades. Even if lightning strikes and Democrats win the
governor's mansion, the party's future is still bright.
Q. After the Republicans established
firm control of Texas, do you believe that it was inevitable for
a popular Republican to challenge a sitting Republican governor?
A. The GOP hasn't had a truly competitive
high-profile primary...well, ever. In 1990, there was a
gubernatorial primary that was supposed to be close...but
wasn't. In 1994 and 1998, we had competitive AG races...not
exactly the top of the ticket.
But that was a different party; a party
still in ascent. Now the party holds all statewide offices and
the Texas House and Senate. Clearly the intra-party struggles
will begin to have more of an effect on the state's politics.
Texas may never become Kansas -- where the conservative and
moderate GOPers fight each other as much as the Democrats -- but
it's likely to trend a little bit in that direction.
Q. Do you see any parallels with this
possible primary challenge to the 2004 Arlen Spector and Pat
Toomey race in Pennsylvania (that is, a battle of ideologies)?
A. KBH is certainly more moderate than
Perry, both stylistically and on issues. But I think that the
Toomey-Specter comparison is ill-fitting.
Q. In Texas, it wasn't very long ago
that you could literally stick the entire Republican Party into
a phone booth. Texas was a solid Democratic state and in fact,
quite a number of current and former Republican state
legislators were once Democrats or had worked for Democrats. Do
you believe it is baseless charge for Kay Bailey Hutchinson to
claim that Rick Perry was once a Democrat, therefore not a
"real" Republican?
A. Well, plenty of the folks who will be
voting in this year's Republican primary have voted in a
Democratic primary before.
I don't think Hutchison will focus much on
Perry's former partisanship. Her case will be that Perry has
failed to lead and get things done, particularly school finance.
Q. And on the subject of who are "real"
Republicans, what sort of impact do you see State Comptroller
Carole Keeton Strayhorn having on the primary if Kay Bailey
Hutchinson enters the race?
A. For the purposes of this question,
Strayhorn is two things: ambitious and an enemy of Rick Perry.
If Hutchison runs, I think Strayhorn doesn't run, but she
continues to criticize Perry as much as possible.
To that degree, she serves to raise
Perry's negatives without affecting Hutchison's positives. If
Hutchison doesn't run, I think it's more likely than not that
Strayhorn runs.
Q. You seemed to have picked quite a
provocative name for your web site, Rick Perry versus the World.
What sort of reaction have you gotten from people visiting your
web site?
A. I haven't gotten much comment on the
name. When I named the blog, it was just an impulsive decision,
because there were many rumors of folks challenging Perry. It
seemed like everyone felt like Perry was vulnerable and was
lining up for a challenge.
As I wrote back when I started the blog in
December 04, I felt that Perry was much less vulnerable than he
appeared to be. I don't see that anything has fundamentally
changed since.
Q. And your web site name does seem to
strike a chord with a lot of Republicans. Certain people feel
that if Kay Bailey Hutchinson does gather momentum for a primary
challenge, that the Party establishment and its "movers and
shakers" will abandon Rick Perry. Do you think it is possible
for long time Perry supporters to jump ship?
A. I don't think that's a likely scenario.
Q. Between Rick Perry and Kay Bailey
Hutchinson, who has done a better job in cultivating a
relationship with the media?
A. Over the past few years it has been
apparent that there is little love lost between the state's
journalists and Rick Perry.
Q. Potential Democratic candidates are
John Sharp, Tony Sanchez, Chris Bell, and Jim Turner. Who do you
think has the most to gain if there is a messy Republican
primary?
A. I don't think I'm knowledgeable enough
about the Democratic side to be able to forecast.
Q. And the governor's race would not be
complete without mentioning Kinky Friedman. What sort of impact
do you think that Kinky Friedman is going to have?
A. It's too early to say. If he wants
folks to take him seriously, he needs to take the "store" off of
his site. But you know, I've seen a few bumper stickers around
my neighborhood. There's even a bar a few blocks from me with a
"Run Kinky Run" banner.
I wouldn't count Kinky out yet, though he
has a large mountain to climb before he'll be taken seriously.
Evan
Rick Perry Versus the World
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